The source for the population data is the Census Bureau and is for 2018.
The following table extrapolates the Orcas population by age to the Italian mortality percentages by age. See the previous post to see what it looked like using Chinese percentages.
The source for the Italian mortality rates are as of March 7, 2020 from the Ordine dei Medici Chirurghi e degli Odontoiatri. (Order of Surgeons and Dentists) http://bit.ly/2W1r0np
Not everyone who gets the virus will exhibit symptoms. The mortality rate is based on those who have symptoms. The 100% column presumes everyone has the symptoms. That is not realistic. The 20% column presumes 20% of the people who contract the virus, will exhibit symptoms. That too may be unrealistic. We simply do not know what percentage of the population will contract the virus and have no symptoms.
Are the Italian mortality rates applicable to Orcas Island? We do not know. Make your own assumptions as to the percentage of people who will contract the virus and the percentage who will exhibit symptoms. Decide if you think the Italian data is valid for us. Personally, I believe that most people will eventually get the virus. We have no idea how many people who have the virus will exhibit symptoms. We hope it is few as that means the virus will have little impact on most people. However, if most people exhibit symptoms once they contract the virus, then the impact on society will be significant. Without this key piece of information, your guesses are as good as anyone else’s.
The purpose of these tables is to illustrate how much older the population on Orcas Island is in comparison to the rest of the State and to show how that has the potential to affect the island more than it will other locations with a younger population.
The next table shows the morbidity using the Orcas population and the Italian data. It assumes 20% of the population will exhibit symptoms once they contract the virus. The 20% has no basis. You should use whatever percentage you think is reasonable. This report is substantially better than the Chinese data. The difference is caused by a lower morbidity rate for those below 80 in the Italian data as opposed to the Chinese data. The Italians report that those who die often have other complicating health issues making them more susceptible to the virus. We know that we have an older population which is at the highest risk. However, there is evidence that we have a healthier population than other parts of America.
Additional information on the virus that I found to be informative from the Bedford Lab