The source for the population data is the American Community Survey which is a division of the Census Bureau and is for 2017.
The following table extrapolates the Orcas population by age to the Chinese mortality percentages by age.
The source for the China mortality rates are from the China CDC weekly published on Feb 17. The China data is from the Chinese government.
Not everyone who gets the virus will exhibit symptoms. The mortality rate is based on those who have symptoms. The 100% column presumes everyone has the symptoms. That is not realistic. The 50% column presumes half of the people who have the virus will exhibit symptoms. That too may be unrealistic. The 25% column presumes 25% of the people who contract the virus will exhibit symptoms.
Are the Chinese mortality rates applicable to Orcas Island? We simply do not know. Make your own assumptions as to the percentage of people who will contract the virus and the percentage that will exhibit symptoms. Decide if you think the Chinese data is valid for us. Personally, I believe that most people will eventually get the virus. We have no idea how many people who have the virus will exhibit symptoms. We hope it is few as that means the virus will have little impact on most people. However, if most people exhibit symptoms once they contract the virus, then the impact on society will be significant. Without this key piece of information, your guesses are as good as anyone else’s.
The purpose of these tables is to illustrate how much older the population on Orcas Island is in comparison to the rest of the State and to show how that has the potential to affect the island more than it will other locations with a younger population.
We do know that we have an older population which is at the highest risk. However, there is evidence that it is a healthier population than other parts of America.
Additional information on the virus that I found to be informative from the Bedford Lab
Washington State Department of Health work place notice.
Once we have updated information by age for Italy or any other country with reliable data, I will update the percentages.